Weekly Review and Outlook
And so we ended the month of January 2022 with a down month. It’s not a rosy picture to start the year, but it is what it is. Just before the year started, I wrote a post on 2022 being a difficult year for the stock market.
And based on seasonal statistics, there is a good 70% probability the S&P500 would drop between 4th January to 8th February. These statistics played out nicely.
Moving forward, there is a 90% probability that the S&P500 would rally between 8th February to 18th March, with an average of +4.40%. Is it time to start buying?
I’ll share more in the later part of this article, but first -
Here’s the review for the past week:
Going into February, my equities portfolio is currently down by -7.91% YTD. Last week, I added a couple of positions from the momentum trade strategy, bringing my cash position to 15.64%.
I’ll be looking to add a couple more positions this coming week following my seasonal trade ideas strategy.
Some investors have been asking, “Is this the bottom? Are we gonna see a bounce higher from here already?”
From my analysis, I would say it’s a good 55% we might see the market moves higher from here. BUT first we wanna give it a few more days to see how price develops first (more details at the latter part of this article).
